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Trading companies were asked how their turnover in January 2026 compared with December 2025, omitting any seasonal trading. Information are outlined in the middle of the period of each wave. Nearly a third (31%) of trading organizations reported that their turnover had actually reduced in January 2026 compared to the previous month.

The movements are broadly in line with those observed around this time in previous years, with peaks in December followed by small falls in January. The industries with the highest proportion reporting that turnover decreased in January 2026 were: the accommodation and food service activities industry (52%, which is a 21 portion point increase from December 2025) the other services industry (45%) the arts, home entertainment and entertainment industry (40%) Approximately 16% of trading companies reported that their turnover increased in January 2026, which was a 3 portion point boost compared with December 2025.

For trading businesses with 10 or more workers, 33% reported that their turnover had actually decreased, which was broadly steady compared to December and January 2025. More than one in five (23%) organizations reported that their turnover had increased, up 2 percentage points compared with December 2025. Normally, the proportion of businesses reporting that their turnover increased associated to the size of the service.

The exception to this was the percentage for companies with 250 or more employees, which was 25%, and 5 percentage points lower than December 2025 (30%). Trading organizations were asked how they expect their turnover to alter in the coming month. This can then be utilized to predict how business's turnover will really change once that calendar month concludes.

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Trends in between anticipated turnover and actual turnover have broadly moved in the exact same direction, the movements for expectations tend to be bigger. Care needs to be taken when analyzing expectations questions, as the staff members responding on behalf of companies may not have complete oversight of all of their company's future expectations.

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More than one in 5 (21%) trading services expect their turnover to increase in March 2026. This is a 6 portion point increase from February 2026 however was broadly steady compared with expectations for March 2025 (22%). The proportion of trading services anticipating an increase in January 2026 was 13%, while the proportion that reported a real increase in turnover in January 2026 was 16%, suggesting a minor pessimism in companies expectations.

The trends have broadly followed each other given that the questions were presented in April 2022. The outcomes for March 2026 follow the trend from previous years, with the portion of services anticipating turnover to increase peaking after a decline in January. Larger businesses were more most likely to expect a boost in turnover in March, with the percentage varying from 20% for companies with 0 to 9 employees, to 42% for businesses with 100 to 249 workers.

For presentational functions, some response options have actually been eliminated. Data are plotted in the middle of the duration of each wave.

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The percentage of trading organizations that expected a decrease in January 2026 was 25%, while the percentage that reported a real decrease in turnover in January 2026 was 31%. The proportion of services anticipating turnover to decrease for a particular month ahead of time has remained significantly lower than the percentage of businesses reporting an actual reduction in that month considering that April 2022.

However, expectations for turnover to reduce have regularly followed the same trend, as actual reported turnover decreases throughout this time. Trading companies were asked what obstacles, if any, were affecting their turnover in early February 2026. Around 3 in 10 (30%) trading companies reported that economic uncertainty was having an effect on their turnover, which was broadly stable with early January 2026.

This is broadly steady compared to early January 2026 and 2 portion points down compared with a year earlier. For trading organizations with 10 or more staff members, cost of labour was the most frequently reported challenge, at 36%. This was broadly stable compared to early January 2026. Businesses with 10 to 49 staff members were more likely to report expense of labour as an obstacle than companies with 250 or more workers (37%, compared to 20%). One in 5 (20%) trading businesses with 10 or more workers indicated that they were not currently experiencing any turnover obstacles in early February 2026. Further details on monetary performance, including all response alternatives categorised by market and size band, are offered in our accompanying dataset.